Europeans went to the polls this past week to elect members of European Parliament, as well as national and local policymakers in some cases. Each of the 27 member states votes according to its own electoral system. In many countries, the European ballot is a case of national politics and, indeed, results must be analyzed through that lens, as well.
Here is what we know about the composition of the new Parliament, pending final numbers. The European People's Party solidified its position as the leading political group at the EU level by a number of seats and managed to gain a few compared to the previous term. Far right groups have gained significant momentum but only in pockets of countries, notably France. The Socialists remained stable. The Liberals of Renew and the Greens both suffered significant defeats, the latter falling from being the fourth largest group to the sixth.
Renew will lose some of its informal "kingmaker" power to the benefit of the Conservatives and Reformists Party which becomes almost equivalent in size. Alliances were a game of chess, file by file, even amendments to amendments, during the preceding term. With far right groups receiving one quarter of the seats, alliances will be even harder to build.
In the grand scheme of things, this raises a genuine question about Parliament's ability to continue to legislate, debate and negotiate effectively and constructively. Not in a grim fearmongering way — although some of these results don't bode well for the European project — but in what this process may mean for the quality of EU policymaking and its legislative output. Difficult alliances mean arduous compromises to reach, legislative files advancing at snail pace, being riddled with unclear provisions, or incomplete because the hard stuff is left for others to figure out.
The EU applications until 4 July. Wiewiórowski could run for a second five-year mandate, but the Commission expects it might receive up to 50 applications from candidates across the EU. The Commission will draw a shortlist of at least three candidates, who will then participate in a public hearing before Parliament and a closed meeting with the Council. The decision should be made in late October, while the new term will begin 4 Dec.